Impact of Colorado wildfires extends beyond burned acreage

Have you recently stepped outside to the smell of a campfire? Or been surprised to find your car covered in white ash? Or been shocked by the size of the setting orange sun?

It's not the apocalypse, although the orange light does seem a bit eerie. It's simply the end of a hot, dry summer in Colorado.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, as the summer of 2020 comes to a close, the entire state of Colorado is currently experiencing drought conditions. For the first time since 2013, 100% of the state is in drought, with almost half of the state recording extreme drought conditions.

As a result, the 2020 wildfire season in Colorado has been particularly bad as well. With four major fires burning in the state since early August, the effects of these wildfires have been felt by Colorado residents near and far.

The largest of these fires, the 139,007-acre Pine Gulch Fire outside of Grand Junction, was said to be 100% contained as of Sept. 24, making it the largest wildfire in Colorado history, surpassing the 2002 137,760-acre Hayman Fire.

And even as that fire was contained, the Cameron Peak Fire continued to grow, engulfing another 6,200 acres on Friday, Sept. 26. This fire, which is burning west of Fort Collins in Roosevelt National Forest, is only 25% contained and has burned 111,114 acres, making it the third largest fire in state history.

According to a Sept. 25 report released by the GACC Rocky Mountain Area Coordination Center, estimated costs to date for fighting current wildfires burning in the state sits at over $102 million. And that estimate does not include any post-fire reclamation costs or ongoing expenditures for yet-uncontained fires.

To date, 57 structures have been destroyed by the Cameron Peak Fire. And though homeowners who don't technically live "in the mountains" might feel a bit removed from the immediate danger of wildfires, the blanket of smoke and days with visibly falling ash might cause some to wonder how close is too close for a wildfire.

In various states including Colorado, wildfire risk is one factor that goes into determining home insurance rates and coverage. Predictive modeling helps establish wildfire risk. One major method relies on mapping the wildland-urban interface (WUI) which is the area where houses meet or mingle with undeveloped wildland vegetation. This zone is where potentially flammable vegetative fuels meet or overlap with homesites, increasing the risk of wildfire.

Currently, the Colorado Forest Atlas uses a mapping application to help inform homeowners and business owners of the potential risk for their location based on surrounding fire behavior conditions. According to the website, the Wildfire Risk Public Viewer is "designed to increase wildfire awareness, provide a comprehensive view of wildfire risk and local fire history, and educate users about wildfire prevention and mitigation resources available from the Colorado State Forest Service. The viewer is intended to support homeowners and community leaders."

Based on this map, members of the public can view burn probability and wildfire risk for their area. The map shows the wildfire risk increasing closer to the foothills, with most of the Niwot, Gunbarrel and Longmont being in the "very low" to "moderate" burn probability.

While this mapping application may provide an idea of future fire dangers, Boulder County residents have already been dealing with present impacts of the wildfires. One such impact is the smoke.

Wildfire smoke in the area has, on days, been so thick as to obscure the foothills and mountains. People have noted ash falling from the sky, and the air quality in the greater Denver metro area has been rated as unhealthy for sensitive groups multiple days in the past month.

The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environmentrecommends that when smoke is thick, people may want to remain indoors, especially if they have heart disease, respiratory illnesses, or are very young or elderly. It is recommended to limit outdoor activity when moderate to heavy smoke is present. If visibility is less than five miles, smoke levels are considered unhealthy.

The American Lung Association (ALA) notes that one of the many pollutants found in wildfire smoke is particle pollution, a mix of tiny solid and liquid particles suspended in air. These small particles, when breathed, can enter the lungs causing asthma attacks, heart attacks, and strokes for at-risk individuals. For healthy individuals, the particles can cause breathing issues as well as eye and throat irritation.

The ALA recommends staying indoors when the air quality is poor. Though wearing a mask can help, the ALA notes that for the mask to effectively filter out the particulate matter found in wildfire smoke, it needs to be properly fitted with an N-95 or N-100 filter.

But patiently waiting indoors for the sky to clear may seem a bit frustrating, especially on days when the smoke seems to have settled in to stay.

Data Scientist at E Source Tyler McCandless, who holds a Ph.D. in meteorology from Penn State University, noted that the weather is one reason that wildfire smoke can hang around.

"The conditions that cause wildfire smoke to linger depend on the atmospheric dynamics (i.e. the weather conditions). Specifically, when there is an inversion where the temperature increases instead of decreasing as you head higher in the atmosphere, this situation can act as a LID that keeps the smoke in the lower atmosphere where we live," said McCandless.

"Wind conditions also affect the dispersion or spread of the smoke, which can act to either concentrate smoke in an area or spread it out. One of the challenges with the front range of Colorado is that wildfires to our west can have smoke blown in with a westerly wind and then an inversion can cause that smoke to be highly concentrated, especially in the morning hours," said McCandless.

This year, the smoke from both the Colorado fires and the many fires burning in California, Washington, and Oregon, has been so significant that the plumes can be seen from space.

"Wildfire smoke is a combination of gases and particulates, which have various forms of sinks - things that remove them from the atmosphere," McCandless said. "Most of the particulates that make the sky hazy eventually are blown by the wind to more areas that overall reduce the concentration,"

Wind is one condition that can exacerbate the wildfires, causing the fires to spread more rapidly and, in turn, create more smoke. The ideal outcome would be for moisture in the form of rain or snow to help take the smoke out of the air while simultaneously helping with the fire containment and statewide drought conditions.

And though the short-term forecast appears to call for more hot, dry days, fall officially arrived on Sept. 22. From here, the state can only wait for moisture to end this wildfire season.