Colorado avalanche danger considerable heading into the new year

As wishes for a white Christmas were foiled by 60 degrees and plenty of sunshine, folks continue to head to higher elevations to seek out snow.

And while the current snowpack in Colorado is below average and snowfall has come in fits and spurts, the avalanche danger across much of the state is currently moderate to high. This includes some areas of Indian Peaks Wilderness, Rocky Mountain National Park, and other high alpine zones where locals might be headed to find fresh powder.

These local recreation areas, classified by the Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) as part of the Front Rangebackcountry zone, have a current avalanche assessment sitting at "considerable" for areas above or near treeline, and "moderate" below treeline. CAIC classifies "considerable" avalanche danger as dangerous avalanche conditions where cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making is essential.

As of Dec. 26, avalanches have resulted in four fatalities across the state. Normally, Colorado averages about six deaths per year, making the state one of the highest in the nation in terms of annual avalanche deaths. With four deaths to date and a long ski season ahead, the season is shaping up to be potentially record-setting-in a bad way.

Between Dec. 18 and 20, 132 avalanches were recorded in the state. Fortynine of these avalanches were caused by backcountry skiers. While the snowpack this winter is sub-par, the other factors that go into making conditions favorable for avalanches are lining up, resulting in potentially dangerous conditions in the high country.

Whether an area may be prone to slide depends on a combination of factors, including the steepness of a slope (also known as slope angle which is measured in degrees) and the consistency of the snow layers.

With each storm, new snow is deposited in a layer atop prior layers. Depending on how the layers bond and the strength of the base layer on which the entire load rests, wind loading, temperature, slope direction, elevation, and other factors can lead to an area that is primed to slide. Currently, the conditions along the Front Range are lining up for persistent slab avalanches.

Backcountry skiing, which is also known as off-piste or alpine touring, involves hiking into the backcountry to ski unmarked areas. Unlike downhill skiing at a ski resort, most often these areas are unmarked, unpatrolled, and have little to no avalanche mitigation.

When heading into the backcountry, skiers are responsible for assessing the avalanche risk and making decisions to minimize the danger of their route. Mitigating risk includes understanding, to some degree, all the many factors that create the conditions for triggering an avalanche as well as reading the terrain to assess slopes more likely to produce an avalanche.

One concern heading into the 2020/2021 ski season, voiced by search and rescue volunteers, land managers, and even retailers selling backcountry gear, was the potential danger posed by a host of brand new beginner backcountry travelers, a trend that was already on the upward swing at the end of the 2019/2020 season as ski resorts were forced to close early or limit on-hill ski traffic due to COVID-19.

Much like the cycling industry, which saw an upsurge in gear purchases during the summer, backcountry gear sales saw a large increase with sales of alpine touring equipment increasing 15% in the 2019/2020 season as people looked for ways to stay active during the winter. In hopes of reaching first-time backcountry travelers, the Colorado Tourism Office put together a Colorado backcountry winter safetycampaign, focused on safety.

But as the recent deaths highlight, beginners are not the only concern. Three of the four who died were experienced backcountry skiers. In general, many of the more experienced backcountry skiers and snowboarders may be seeking more extreme terrain or going deeper into the backcountry to try to find fresh powder and fewer crowds.

And it's not just skiers or snowboarders who are at risk. Snowmobiling, snow biking, snowshoeing, and winter hiking/climbing can also easily take people into avalanche terrain, whether they were planning on it or not.

So what can you do to mitigate some of this risk before heading to the high country? At the bare minimum, even if you are planning to stick to mellow terrain, you should always:

• Check the current CAIC conditions and forecast.
• Talk to someone who knows the area when planning your route (preferably the land manager if you are unsure).
• Don't get complacent-just because a route was safe in the past, does not mean it is safe in the present.
• Find ways to practice and learn in controlled or mitigated environments when possible.
• If you do have avalanche gear (probe, beacon, shovel), know how to use it.

In general, when traveling into the backcountry in the winter, the more knowledge you have and the better equipped you are to handle any potential emergencies, the greater your chance of survival should you find yourself in an unfortunate situation.

Taking avalanche classes, spending time with more experienced mentors, and thoroughly preparing before heading out are all ways you can mitigate the risk. At the end of the day, any trip into the backcountry, regardless of the season, involves risk. With adequate knowledge, vigilance, and a healthy dose of respect for the very real dangers of avalanches, visitors can still enjoy the beauty of the Colorado mountains in the winter while reducing the risk.

For more information on current conditions, avalanche danger, and the latest reports, visit www.avalanche.state.co.us