Niwot Market adjusts to new supply chain challenges

To paraphrase Forrest Gump's mama, a trip to the grocery store these days is like a box of chocolates-you never know what you're going to get because several items on your list are probably out of stock. The reasons for this are myriad, and mostly (but not entirely) downstream from the pandemic, but it can be summed up as bottlenecks at all points along the food supply chain--from the source, to vendors, to distributors, and at the store level. In Colorado and other parts of the U.S., this trend has been more noticeable in recent weeks, as the quickly spreading Omicron variant and worker illness exacerbated the impact of those disruptions, not to mention the back-to-back snowstorms, striking union workers, and, locally, displacement due to the Marshall Fire.

Niwot Market is not immune to these challenges, owner Bert Steele said, and the amount of missing stock now is "excessive, compared to normal circumstances." But circumstances haven't been normal since March 2020, he continued, and the impacts at his store have been relatively light, compared to the struggles of his larger corporate competitors.

"It's not terrible," Steele said. "Produce is coming in normally, although deliveries are sometimes late due to labor shortages. So my opinion is we'll be fine. Just fine."

On a recent Saturday morning visit, the store's shelves and coolers were mostly full, though there was a smattering of empty displays throughout the aisles, and empty bins in produce. Like other grocers in the area, Steele has seen prolonged unavailability of certain pasta and cereal products, the former due to a recent rise in the price of durum flour and the latter due to a labor strike at Kellogg's factories that ended in December. The industry has also seen temporary shortages of cream cheese, sports drinks, pet food, and, memorably, toilet paper. However, according to Steele, more recent shortages have been caused by disruptions in packaging or other supplies, rather than a lack of food.

"For example, Tru Pickles, which is our bestseller, has, at times, had trouble getting jars," he said. "There's not a shortage of pickles."

Steele also pointed to another factor that is driving shortages at the Market-shoppers are continuing to buy more food than they did before March 2020, even as more dining options return. That bears out industry-wide. According to food producer trade group FMI, weekly spending at grocery stores in the U.S. averaged $143 last year, up from $113.50 in 2019, though down from its peak of $161 at the beginning of the pandemic.

Steele remains wary of other industry trends, including inflation, which has been "rough," he acknowledged. On Jan. 12, the Labor Department reported that the consumer price index rose 7.0% during 2021, confirming what many shoppers already knew.

"Nobody likes it," Steele said. "In business, predictability and stability are much easier. I don't think anybody's trying to take advantage. The food industry is really efficient, so, again, I think we'll be fine."

So far, neither the shortages nor price increases have scared Market customers away, Steele said. In fact, sales are "up across the board," as new shoppers seek alternatives to the chain stores, whether out of refusal to cross a picket line or due to widespread shortages.

That said, Steele is impatient for a return to more normal conditions at the Market, though it's hard to tell when that might come.

"I don't want to get used to it and say this is okay," he said. "I hate making excuses to the customer, because, honestly, you can't keep up with it."