Public school enrollment declines - Part 1

According to a recent report issued by the Colorado Department of Education in October of 2023, there were 1,800 fewer students enrolled in Colorado Public Schools than in 2022. School districts across the state have been facing declining enrollment issues, with some, like Denver Public Schools, expecting upwards of an 8% decline in students in the next five years.

Boulder Valley School District (BVSD) is projected to lose 1,700 students over the next 5 years based on reports from 2022-2023. In response, it has created a Long Range Advisory Committee, the purpose of which is to “develop recommendations to ensure sound long-term facility decisions consistent with the needs of the School District and in support of the School District’s strategic initiatives.”

In other words, the committee will help guide the district while this decline in enrollment occurs, by making recommendations based on current trends inside the district.

Heatherwood Elementary School, a school whose enrollment is expected to continuously decline until 2028, formed an Educational Advisory Team in April 2024 consisting of parents, staff and community members as part of Heatherwood’s Community Engagement Process. The team is tasked to “develop recommendations regarding future programming and educational experiences in response to declining enrollment.”

The possible recommendations outlined in the BVSD Long Range Advisory Committee Metrics and Recommendations include “Continuing to operate at the established staffing funding formula,” “focus or specialized programming,” “reallocate grade levels with neighboring school,” or as a final resort, “closure/consolidation.”

“I think the most important thing to know is that… declining enrollment is something that schools across the nation are dealing with,” said Randy Barber, BVSD’s Chief Communications Officer. Indeed, according to statistics compiled by the National Center for Education Statistics, an estimated drop in nationwide enrollment of 1.7 million is projected to occur over the next five years, according to projected data from 2021.

“I think the last conversation that we had around enrollment here in Boulder was about 20 years ago and we had to close a couple… schools,” said Barber. Mapleton Elementary (now Mapleton Early Childhood Education Center) shut its doors in 2004, while Washington Elementary closed in 2002.

The threat of closure and declining enrollment occurs at a time of great uncertainty in Boulder Valley, as families fight rising housing costs amidst a general trend in declining birth rates. Other factors may contribute to declining enrollment at BVSD.

“There's not as much affordable housing [in Boulder]… so that's definitely a part of it as well,” said Barber. “Ultimately, one of the most important things when it comes to choosing a school is location… There’s only so many folks that live here that have kids.”

St. Vrain Valley School District is also facing declining enrollment, albeit not at the level BVSD is facing (a decline of 0.41% occurred in the past year), but with more housing development expected in the eastern part of the district, that trend may reverse itself.

Learn more about St. Vrain Valley School District’s enrollment issues in Part 2 of this series in next week’s Left Hand Valley Courier.