Public school enrollment - Part 2

This is Part 2 in a two-part series regarding public school enrollment in Boulder Valley. Part 1 focused on the Boulder Valley School District. Part 2 focuses on the St. Vrain Valley School District.

In its Sept.18, 2024 issue, the Left Hand Valley Courier covered declining enrollment throughout the Boulder Valley School District (BVSD), and how BVSD is helping manage the decline. Nearby, the St. Vrain Valley School District (SVVSD) seems to be facing less decline than BVSD though, with an estimated 0.41% decrease having occurred in the past year as compared to a 0.44% decrease from BVSD.

Looking to projections for the next few years, BVSD’s decline is estimated to far outpace SVVSD, with one website mentioning how “St. Vrain Valley Schools is one of the few districts in Colorado that has experienced growing enrollment over the past decade, to approximately 33,000 students today, with a full build-out plan to approximately 70,000-75,000 students.”

To help comprehend the changing (and somewhat contradictory to state trends on enrollment) landscape of the SVVSD, officials utilize documents provided by the SVVSD planning team, which offer detailed reports on enrollment and various demographic statistics. The most recent report, released for the 2023-2024 school year, offers some insight into the district’s plans for expansion.

Niwot Elementary School reported 176 students enrolling in the school from outside the SVVSD, with only 30 students in the Niwot area enrolling outside the district. At Niwot High, 800 students enrolled from outside the district, while only 289 students living in Niwot opted to enroll in another district.

One point of interest is the development hotspots across the district, with residential development peaking in central Longmont, Erie and Firestone, with Erie especially holding a tremendous amount of planned development.

The Niwot area doesn’t hold much in the way of development, and neither does southern Longmont or Gunbarrel. In total, 13,156 housing permits were issued from January 2018 through October 2023, with all of these houses falling within SVVSD boundaries.

With SVVSD having tremendous development occurring within its boundaries, it's no wonder then that the school district has plans to expand and build new schools. These include over 40 different planned schools, with almost all located in the eastern half of the district. This lines up rather well with the residential development patterns that exist within the school district’s boundaries, showing how the school district is preparing for an influx of new students over the course of the next few years.

Birth rates are peaking in certain areas, with Longmont seemingly containing the highest concentration of births in the most recent tally, done in 2022. From 2021-2022 births increased by 28 people.

Projections for overall enrollment at the elementary school level show a small drop in enrollment over the next year or so, with enrollment rates then increasing over time to near-peak 2021 levels.